As performance advertisers we live and breathe data. Data provides certainty, and certainty creates confidence, and confidence drives action.
In an ideal world all data would be clean, useful and easy to decode. The truth is, data is often messy, difficult to draw conclusions from, and even sometimes completely misleading. So what do you do when data is being unhelpful?
Data Done Right
Here is an example of useful data. Katté & Co monitored and categorised the impact of Auto-Applied Recommendations across several Google accounts, identifying changes that were beneficial vs changes that had negligible or even negative impact on account performance.
The findings here were clear and the recommendation for our clients to not adopt AAR except in specific circumstances was an easy one to make. If only all findings could be this clear cut.
The Dangers of Bad Data
The temptation to use data when you shouldn’t is strong. You can categorise bad data into three broad areas:
- Poor quality: this is where the data inaccurately informs the outcome you are seeking. One example of this is where tracking errors in tags lead to incorrect revenue pulling through to platforms.
- Incomplete: the data you have is good quality, but there are gaps. Often this can be as bad as poor quality data, because you are acting on an incomplete view. A good example of this which we often come across is CRM data, where match rates back to platforms can be poor.
- Noisy: you might have all the data you think you need, but the conditions in which you collected that data are substandard. Think about trying to run an incrementality test during a heavy promotion period.
So often we see decisions made off the back of poor quality, incomplete, or noisy data. It has even been given a name in some circles: green shoots. What’s even worse is becoming stuck in analysis paralysis, where you have plenty of data but no conclusions. Locked in a spiral of conflicting half-conclusions can drain you of confidence. Without even noticing, weeks and months can pass you by with little accomplished. Luckily, there is a way forward.
Let’s Talk About Intuition
Intuition is not instinct. Instinct is defined as, ‘an innate, typically fixed pattern of behaviour in animals in response to certain stimuli’. Running away from a lion is instinctive behaviour. You do not need to use your intuition to know running away from a lion is a good idea.
Bruce Henderson’s definition of intuition is, ‘the subconscious integration of all the experiences, conditioning, and knowledge of a lifetime, including the cultural and emotional biases of that lifetime.’ This is key to understanding how it can help in a performance marketing setting. As experts, you have experience and knowledge that can inform your intuition. But it needs to be used carefully.
The Pitfalls of Intuition
This is so important. Intuition alone is not helpful. You don’t want to be:
- The magician in the room pulling a performance rabbit out of a hat by leaning on confusing data to try and convince people you have a solid conclusion. No one will be impressed.
- Using intuition to come up with ideas that are trying to distract from poor or bad performance. Stay classy.
- Continuing to draw conclusions from poor data while convincing yourself you are using your intuition. You cannot extrapolate good data from bad, and your intuition will not get you there.
Intuition As a Tool
It’s much more useful to think of intuition as part of your performance marketing toolkit. A way to find your way back to data when the data you have won’t enable you to draw useful conclusions. Intuition can be incredibly useful to:
- Recognise when you are stuck in analysis paralysis. Sometimes using your intuition to simply recognise when you are trapped is enough. And then you can set up the conditions for finding a way forward.
- Advocate for different approaches. Oftentimes intuition can lead to new ideas that perhaps cannot yet be backed by data but will allow you to set up the conditions to collect new data to support your assumptions.
- Remember your goals. Often we can get so lost in the immediate conclusions we are trying to draw that we forget what the end goal is. Intuition can help you see past the current blocker to an alternative solution that will get you to your goal.
It’s important to note – none of these approaches advocate abandoning a data-led approach. They are all designed to get you back to data. Without good data, findings are simply opinions.
An Example
Katté & Co partnered with Swyft. Swyft offered a novel and compelling solution to buying a sofa. The sofa would be delivered in a box, ready to easily assemble at home. This fuss-free delivery was such a compelling USP that we spent weeks testing creative that emphasised sofa-in-a-box messaging.
For a while we saw good but not amazing results. We kept iterating on the creative, testing different versions, with no major improvements. The data did not tell us anything useful.
It took an intuitive leap to find success. We realised we were fixating on the data and not on the goal. The goal was not to make the messaging work. The goal was to sell more sofas. Realising this, we changed tack on our creative theme. We trialled a new messaging: stain resistance. We had no data to back this idea, but we went with our gut – it felt right, and we had a data-driven way to test our assumption.
The results when comparing creative themes, in favour of the stain resistance message:
- 30% increase in CTR
- 40% decrease in CPA
- Comparable order volume
From there we were able to scale performance rapidly. Using intuition to free ourselves from analysis paralysis we found a way forward without delay.
Building A Data vs. Intuition Framework
Here is a delightfully simple framework that can be used pretty much everyday. It combines the best elements of a rigorous data-driven approach to performance marketing while removing the analysis paralysis that can grind progress to a halt when the data is no good. And the best part is, it fits on a sticky note:
- When the data is available and is of a good quality, go with the data.
- If the data is not there, do not allow yourself to get stuck.
- If you have the expertise, use your intuition to find your way back to data.
Conclusion
Experience and expertise hone your intuition and allow you to see past the immediate data challenge to focus on the end goal. If you have the expertise, be smart, be brave and trust in your intuition when you need to. And you’ll find a way forward.
